As the dust settles on what proved to be another eventful year for digital assets, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 presented a fascinating dichotomy. Despite reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) in October, marking significant milestones for the world’s premier cryptocurrency, prominent Bitcoin maximalist and Jan3 founder, Samson Mow, has controversially labelled 2025 as a ‘bear market.’ This contrarian assessment, delivered amidst a backdrop of euphoric price action, demands a deep dive, especially when paired with his bold prediction of a ‘decade-long bull run’ lying ahead. As senior crypto analysts, we must dissect this paradox and evaluate the underlying rationale that could bridge such seemingly contradictory claims.
To understand Mow’s ‘bear market’ classification for a year that saw Bitcoin scale unprecedented peaks, we must first consider the various lenses through which market cycles can be viewed. Objectively, 2025 witnessed robust capital inflows and a broadening of institutional interest, culminating in a fresh ATH. However, Mow’s perspective likely transcends mere nominal price appreciation. One plausible interpretation is that he refers to a ‘relative bear market’ – a period where, despite setting new records, Bitcoin’s growth trajectory or volatility profile may have disappointed expectations when benchmarked against previous explosive cycles, or against the ‘hyperbitcoinization’ narrative he champions. The year might have been characterized by significant intra-year corrections, sharp drawdowns that, while eventually recovered, inflicted considerable pain on short-term holders and felt distinctly ‘bearish’ in their severity and duration for extended periods.
Furthermore, 2025 could have been a year of complex consolidation. While culminating in an ATH, much of the preceding months might have involved sideways trading, prolonged periods of re-accumulation, or a ‘grinding’ price action that lacked the explosive, unambiguous upward momentum typically associated with a full-blown bull market. For seasoned investors with a long-term vision like Mow, such periods, even when trending upwards, can be perceived as necessary shakeouts or ‘bearish’ in their capacity to test conviction and flush out weak hands before a truly parabolic phase. The late-year ATH, in this view, could be seen as a prelude rather than the main act, a mere breaking of old barriers before the real ascent begins.
Shifting our focus to Mow’s far more optimistic prognostication – a ‘decade-long bull run’ – the underlying pillars of this thesis emerge with greater clarity. Mow is a staunch believer in the fundamental scarcity of Bitcoin, exacerbated by its periodic halvings, the most recent being in 2024. He posits that the supply shock from these events, combined with ever-increasing global demand, will inevitably drive Bitcoin’s price to stratospheric levels. The institutional floodgates, opened by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in prior years, are expected to continue channeling unprecedented amounts of capital into the asset, gradually transforming it from a niche investment into a mainstream portfolio staple. Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and even corporate treasuries are anticipated to increase their Bitcoin allocations, viewing it as a superior store of value and an indispensable hedge against fiat currency debasement.
Beyond institutional adoption, the global macroeconomic landscape provides fertile ground for Mow’s long-term bullish outlook. Persistent inflation, burgeoning national debts, and increasing geopolitical instability fuel the narrative of Bitcoin as a ‘hard money’ alternative and a safe haven asset. As trust in traditional financial systems wanes, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) raise privacy concerns, the appeal of a decentralized, permissionless, and censorship-resistant digital gold only grows. Mow also likely factors in potential nation-state adoption, seeing countries follow in the footsteps of pioneers like El Salvador, either embracing Bitcoin as legal tender or incorporating it into their national reserves.
The apparent contradiction between a ‘bear market’ in 2025 and a ‘decade-long bull run’ subsequently can thus be reconciled by viewing 2025 as a critical, albeit potentially frustrating, preparatory phase. It was perhaps the final sifting period, a last chance for the market to consolidate and for retail investors to accumulate at what will, in retrospect, be considered attractive prices. This ‘bearish’ phase, despite its ATH, could have served to reset sentiment, absorb supply from profit-takers, and build a stronger foundation for the sustained growth Mow envisions. It implies a distinction between short-term price volatility and the inexorable march of long-term fundamental adoption.
However, as with any long-term projection, a healthy dose of analytical caution is warranted. A ‘decade-long bull run’ is an extraordinary claim for any asset, implying sustained growth largely immune to macro headwinds, regulatory shifts, or unforeseen technological disruptions. While Bitcoin’s resilience has been proven time and again, market dynamics are complex, and the path to global adoption will likely be punctuated by its own challenges. Mow’s vision relies on a confluence of factors, many of which are indeed trending favorably for Bitcoin, but their sustained impact over ten years without significant setbacks remains to be seen.
In conclusion, Samson Mow’s characterization of 2025 as a ‘bear market,’ even amidst new all-time highs, forces a deeper contemplation of what truly constitutes a market cycle. It challenges conventional metrics, emphasizing the emotional and relative aspects of price action. Yet, this seemingly bearish assessment ultimately strengthens his conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. For Mow, 2025 was not an end, but a necessary pivot point – a final recalibration before Bitcoin embarks on what he believes will be its most significant and enduring bull run yet, fundamentally reshaping global finance over the coming decade. Investors would do well to consider both the nuances of his immediate market assessment and the profound implications of his long-term foresight.